Alberta balks at Ottawa’s one-size-fits-all net zero power generation promise

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Solar panels were installed at the Michichi Solar project in close proximity to Drumheller, Alberta. This event occurred on July 11th, as captured by Jeff McIntosh from The Canadian Press.

When dealing with electricity systems, Canada can be likened to a cluster of separate domains existing adjacent to one another. Each province and territory exhibits significant variations, remaining largely isolated from one another.

This indicates that for some people, the federal initiative to eliminate the use of fossil fuels in Canadian power grids is seen as a usual course of action, while for others, it poses a significant challenge. This is one of the reasons why the conservative governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan are opposing the efforts by Ottawa in the energy sector once again.

The national administration aims to make the country's power production more environmentally friendly in order to achieve Canada's climate objectives. Ottawa's dedication to achieving nationwide carbon neutrality in electricity generation by 2035 implies that natural gas-powered plants will have a significantly reduced role, unless their emissions can be captured and stored underground, within the next twelve years.

Ottawa frequently boasts about Canada's power grid being nearly 85 percent free of emissions. However, this number fails to acknowledge the diverse range of systems in place throughout the country.

A recent report from the Public Policy Forum (PPF) think tank states that the Canadian energy landscape is diverse and does not follow a uniform pattern. According to the report, five provinces in Canada have tapped into their hydroelectric potential, and four of them are exporting electricity to the United States. Additionally, two provinces have enthusiastically adopted nuclear power, while two others have banned it outright. Furthermore, four provinces still rely on coal as an energy source, but Alberta is soon to join Ontario in becoming a jurisdiction that no longer depends on coal.

In Alberta, natural gas is currently the main source of power, accounting for almost 75% of the province's energy supply. Additionally, Alberta played a major role in Canada's wind and solar development, contributing the most to the country's growth in these renewable energy sources last year. On the other hand, Saskatchewan utilizes a combination of natural gas, coal, and hydroelectricity to meet its energy needs.

In contrast, regions like Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Manitoba, British Columbia, and the Yukon rely predominantly on hydroelectric power sources. These areas have essentially already achieved the 2035 target set by Ottawa when it comes to their energy generation.

Nevertheless, it is not just the requirement for Canadian grids to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035 that is significant. In addition, the supply of energy needs to expand two to threefold by 2050 due to the overall rise in energy demands. According to the report from PPF, electrification must take precedence as the foremost national undertaking of the 21st century, surpassing monumental achievements like the building of the Canadian Pacific railway, the St. Lawrence Seaway, and the Trans-Canada Highway.

The magnitude of the construction required is astonishing: "Envision every barrier, generator, nuclear facility, and solar panel throughout Canada - and then visualize a few more situated beside them," states the report. "Canada's entire terrain already encompasses over 100 power plants with a minimum capacity of 250 MW, each capable of providing electricity to a city of 180,000 residents. In the near future, we will require 220-340 of these power plants."

And do not anticipate that sharing between provinces will be a simple resolution either: "Numerous conflicts over the years regarding the capacity to transfer energy from one province to another - Churchill Falls, Energy East, Northern Gateway - have contributed to reluctance regarding the distribution of electricity burden."

Similarly, the subject of electricity took center stage during a recent discussion between Steven Guilbeault and Minister Rebecca Schulz, who respectively hold positions as the federal and Alberta environment ministers.

"It is simply not feasible to achieve a net-zero state on our electricity grid by 2035," stated Ms. Schulz in a conversation following the gathering. She emphasized that her government is requesting some leeway or exemption, commonly known as a "carve-out," specifically for provinces like Alberta. Alberta is striving to establish a carbon-neutral power grid and oil and gas industry by 2050, a target that is both later and less clearly defined than the federal objectives.

Ottawa has agreed to Alberta's proposal for a collaborative team and indicated a willingness to be more open-minded with its regulations. However, the federal government is anticipated to release preliminary Clean Energy Regulations within a few weeks, which could give rise to another possible conflict between Alberta and Ottawa.

It poses a political dilemma – some argue that it strains national cohesion – as the federal regulations on electricity will have a disproportionately severe impact on Alberta and Saskatchewan. This sets it apart from a carbon pricing system, which aims for a more uniform application throughout the country.

Alberta’s natural gas production is a well-established and crucial industry. There is great optimism for increased exportation of natural gas from both Alberta and British Columbia to meet the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG). It should be noted that the European Union Parliament caused some debate when it declared nuclear power and natural gas as green investments, alongside wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources.

This is not implying that there will be no changes or that changes are unnecessary, considering the alarming increase in Canadian forest fires and the escalating temperatures worldwide. Furthermore, changes can occur unexpectedly faster than we anticipate. For instance, in 2015, coal accounted for 55 percent of Alberta's electricity generation. Many people had strong doubts when the Alberta NDP government accelerated the process of phasing out coal.

The final coal-powered electricity plant in Alberta is set to shut down by the end of this year, much earlier than anticipated. This is positive news as, in general terms, the use of natural gas for electricity generation results in only half the carbon emissions compared to coal. The Pembina Institute, an environmental organization focused on finding solutions, recently released a report stating that the province has the potential to transform its electricity grid into a sustainable and dependable system at a reasonable cost.

However, the UCP has promptly highlighted the price approximations, with a few individuals asserting that the process of eliminating carbon emissions from all of Canada's electricity sources and expanding them will exceed a whopping $1-trillion. Furthermore, the issue of ensuring consistent and dependable power supply will become increasingly worrisome.

Regardless of the region, Canadians are ill-equipped to handle the sudden transition from an abundant supply of electricity to a scarcity, as highlighted in the PPF report. It is crucial to acknowledge the vast range of estimates regarding the costs associated with this nationwide undertaking, suggesting a significant lack of knowledge in this area. Another noteworthy aspect is the immense magnitude of these costs, regardless of which end of the spectrum they fall on.

In this nation, significant ventures frequently exceed their intended timelines, with inter-provincial collaboration being a rarity rather than the norm. Additionally, we struggle to construct sufficient dwellings to accommodate all individuals.

There are compelling justifications for decreasing Canada's electricity emissions. However, it is vital to have a clear understanding of the task that lies ahead. The largest construction endeavor of the current century is set to be colossal and will, once more, expose the contrasting opinions and rifts within our nation.